《穆迪之见》 | Column: The Moodie View

《穆迪达维特免税报告》创办人兼总编辑

Martin Moodie 先生

本期话题:海南能否超越韩国,成为全球最大的免税购物市场?

根据《穆迪达维特免税报告》的最新数据,这两大免税市场在2020年差距急剧缩小,这使得海南在未来超越韩国的可能性越来越大。

早在2015年,海南离岸免税行业的市场价值达8.42亿美元,仅为韩国81亿美元的十分之一。到了2019年,海南的免税销售额翻了超过一番,达到19亿美元。但同时,在中国代购商巨额支出的推动下,韩国的免税销售额急剧飙升至213亿美元。

然而好景不长,在2020年,韩国免税市场在新冠疫情的冲击下,销售额下降了38%,至132亿美元。由于进出韩国的游客量大幅减少,韩国超过90%的销售额都来自大型代购交易。相比之下,海南2020年的销售额增长了120%,达到约50亿美元(含税)。初步预测显示,今年海南的免税销售额将达90亿美元左右,增长约80%,而且这只是保守估计。虽然韩国可能会从2020年的低点上得到温和增长,但两个市场之间的差距定会在今年大大缩小。

去年7月落地的免税购物新政,为海南的免税业务带来了巨大的推动力。调整后的政策将旅客每年每人免税购物额度由3万元提至10万元,并取消了单件商品免税限额,极大推动了销售额的增长。

同时,海南政府还给予了更多免税零售商在海南经营的许可,从而创造了更激烈的市场竞争。随着零售商相互比拼、吸引游客,不仅促进了销售额,更使得市场总体水准得到了提升。

总而言之,海南的未来充满希望,但在追求销售额增长的同时,必须还将重点放在质量上。目前,人力资源和培训方面的不足,是海南免税业面临的一大挑战。全球顶尖品牌在销售、定价、品牌形象和服务方面都需要专业人才的支持。海南的目标不仅是要成为世界最大的免税市场,同时也必须是最好的市场。

Could Hainan become the world’s biggest duty free market, overtaking traditional number one, South Korea?

That is a growing possibility after the gap between the two markets shrunk dramatically in 2020, according to new figures from The Moodie Davitt Report.

In 2015, Hainan’s offshore duty free market was worth US$842 million, just a tenth of South Korea’s US$8.1 billion. By 2019, Hainan had more than doubled to US$1.9 billion, but South Korea, driven by heavy spending by daigou traders reselling into China, had soared to US$21.3 billion.

In 2020 as South Korea reeled in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, sales fell by -38% to US$13.2 billion. With little travel into or out of the country, Korea relied on large-scaledaigou shipments for over 90% of its sales. In Hainan, however, sales rose by over +120% in 2020 with sales reaching approximately US$5 billion (including tax paid). The gap is certain to close further this year. Initial projections suggested that Hainan sales would reach around US$9 billion this year, a rise of some +80% but that figure will likely grow higher. While South Korea might see modest growth on its low 2020 baseline, the gap between the two markets is certain to close significantly.

The introduction of an enhanced duty free shopping policy last July has lent tremendous impetus to the business in Hainan. By tripling the duty free allowance, removing the single purchase limit, and boosting the number of categories that can be sold duty free, the policy lit the touchpaper for growth.

Then, by granting more licences for duty free retailers to set up shop in Hainan, the authorities created more competition. This will not only boost sales but should also raise standards as retailers vie with each other to attract Hainan visitors.

The future, then, looks extremely bright for Hainan. But the focus must also be on the qualitative, not just the sales. Human resources and training are a big challenge in Hainan today. The world’s best brands need tender loving care in terms of merchandising, pricing, brand image and service. Hainan must not only aim to be the world’s biggest duty free market but the best.

原标题:《穆迪之见》 | Column: The Moodie View

责任编辑:邓洁仪
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